About 30 years from now, the world is projected to consume more than double the amount of renewable energy than it does today, but that won’t be enough to stop emissions from rising.

At least not with the policies and technology currently in place, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In a recent report, the EIA projected the world’s population is projected to increase by 2 billion people by 2050, driven by non-OECD countries, pushing up global energy use by nearly 50%.

Oil production is expected to rise to meet the growing global demand, keeping petroleum and other liquids as the world’s dominant energy source. Liquids are closely followed by renewables, which is projected to limit natural gas’ share of the energy consumption mix though it rises by nearly one-third, according to the EIA.

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Projected oil and gas production growth is mainly to support increasing energy consumption in Asia under current trends, Stephen Nalley, acting administrator for the EIA, said during a recent webinar in which the findings of its latest International Energy Outlook were presented.

“A driver of this growth is that we believe that the developing economies, of non-OECD Asia in particular, will import more liquid fuels because those economies lack sufficient production capacity to meet growing demand,” Nalley said during the Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar. “When we adjust our model for faster global economic growth or for higher oil price trajectory, we actually see unprecedented levels of petroleum and other liquid feedstock production into the future.”

The outlook is released annually to help inform energy policy discussions by providing analysis and projections based on existing policies and technologies. For the U.S., the outlook is based on policies in place as of September 2020. The EIA cautioned that the outlook does not predict what is likely to happen but instead gives modeled projections based on assumptions reflected from current energy trends, laws and regulations, technological changes and economics.

Its release came amid continued focus by energy companies and world leaders on reducing emissions to slow global warming. Much focus has been on eliminating leaks, flaring and venting as well as improving operational efficiency to more responsibly produce oil and gas.

Some companies have turned to technologies like carbon capture, utilization and storage. Many have set targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Chevron Corp. was among the latest to join peers that include Equinor, Eni, Shell and Repsol among others with similar goals.

Some companies have also stepped up plans to produce more renewable energy.

The EIA projects renewable energy use grows to nearly the same level as liquids fuel by 2050, accounting for 27% of 2050 global energy consumption.

“As renewables, particularly solar and wind, become cost competitive, the reference case projects that nearly all post-2020 electricity generation growth in the OECD regions will come from these sources and displace an increasing share of existing nonrenewable, mostly fossil fuel-based sources,” said Angelina LaRose, the EIA’s assistant administrator for energy analysis, noting governmental policy support encourages renewables generation growth.

Non-OECD regions could also see growth.

However, fossil fuels will be needed to help maintain reliability of the electric grid and growing demand in non-OECD Asia, she added.

The EIA projects global emissions to rise through 2050, despite renewables growth, more energy efficiency and regional policies.

“Mandated efficiency, fuel and technology regulations are generally more stringent in the OECD countries,” LaRose said. “Energy-related CO2 emissions grow much more rapidly in the non-OECD largely as a result of increases in energy demand associated with population and economic growth. Non-OECD countries’ energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 35% in 2050 over 2020. This is compared to the 5% emissions growth in the OECD.”

Carbon intensity, defined by LaRose as the carbon emitted per unit of energy consumed, is projected to decrease in OECD and non-OECD regions through 2050.

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“Larger declines occur in non-OECD Asia because of an increasing share of renewable energy as well as have technological efficiency improvements. However, the average carbon intensity across non-OECD countries remain higher than those in the OECD through 2050, mainly because of a higher retention of fossil fuels in the non-OECD,” LaRose said. “So, for example, on average, the share of electricity derived from coal across the non-OECD countries is more than twice that than what is in the OECD over the projection period.”

Aaron Bergman, macroeconomics and emissions team lead for the EIA, pointed that the renewables penetration in the electric sector tremendously reduces carbon intensity of electricity generation. The outlook projects that 90% of increases in electricity generation over 2020 to 2050 will come from renewable sources.

However, “the opportunities for decarbonization in the transportation sector and the industrial sector is not nearly as prominent,” Bergman said, “and those are also very large drivers of emissions.”

Erin Boedecker, energy consumption and efficiency modeling team lead for the EIA, brought air and freight travel into the conversation. “They do have limited options for switching to alternative fuels away from fossil fuels,” she noted.

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The EIA’s reference case shows OPEC and non-OPEC oil production rising through 2050, with OPEC production growing nearly three times the rate of non-OPEC production.

“Although OPEC member countries in Africa and South America contribute to this production, the Middle East drives increases in projected OPEC production, increasing production by more than 50% from 2020 to 2050 in this region,” according to the outlook.

The EIA said more exploration, drilling and technology advances are needed to meet increasing demand.