The equation seems simple enough: Mexico’s need for natural gas plus an abundance of cheap gas in Texas equals a boom of U.S. gas exports to Mexico.

That is how it has added up, with pipelined U.S. exports to Mexico soaring 560% from 2011 through 2019. The equation is threatened, though, by a desire by the Mexican government to achieve “energy sovereignty,” a phrase akin to the Trump administration’s goal of U.S. “energy dominance.”

In other words, despite the upheaval put into effect by its energy reform, the country’s policy is drifting back toward a position in which hydrocarbons not “Made in Mexico,” like imported gas, will not be welcome. For that matter, exports of Mexican oil may not be terribly in favor, either, and the role of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is expanding.

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