Mainland China is expected to lead a rebound for the global offshore wind sector, which Rystad Energy forecasts will see 19 gigawatts (GW) in capacity additions this year and hit $80 billion in spend.

That would be an improvement from 2024’s 8 GW, the firm’s data show. The outlook, however, hinges on offshore wind players’ appetites amid continued uncertainty.

Global capacity reached nearly 79 GW at year-end 2024, and “we expect to reach around 207 gigawatts at the end of this decade,” Alexander Fløtre, senior vice president and head of offshore wind for Rystad, said during the recently held Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. “Amidst the headwinds of the market and all the negative news, there are still projects going ahead, countries pushing forward, with China being the main engine.”

The optimistic outlook was delivered as the U.S. offshore wind sector continued battling headwinds. U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year temporarily halted new wind leasing and permitting while ratchetting up support for fossil fuel production—including coal—to meet rising energy demand. The administration issued a stop work order for Equinor’s Empire Wind project off New York, despite it having required permits, pending review. The company had already invested about $2.7 billion in the project.

The moves are in contrast to those taken in other parts of the world, including in Britain where the government this month expanded an incentive scheme called the Clean Industry Bonus. Also, the Crown Estate agreed to increase capacity for wind farms on seabed leases.

The effort to bolster the industry came as the global sector combat high inflation, supply chain disruption and higher costs.

So far, many countries—including offshore wind leaders in Europe—are falling short of 2030 ambitions. Some have lowered their targets or pushed them out to 2031 and beyond, Fløtre said. The U.S. is among them.

“We were quite optimistic last year, expecting around 13.6 gigawatts. That’s less than half of the ambition of 30 gigawatts by 2030,” Fløtre said of the U.S. “Now we’ve taken it down to 5.3 gigawatts, which is basically less than what is currently operational, currently under construction, and even currently FID’d [final investment decision], which says a lot about where we’ve come in the U.S. offshore wind market.”

More uncertainty

Tariffs in the U.S. and globally are increasing market uncertainty. The Trump administration in March began applying a 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum from Europe.

Offshore wind, like oil and gas, is expected to be hit by tariffs imposed by the U.S. on European steel and aluminum due to the intensity of their operations, Fløtre said.

“Uncertainty adds to, let’s say, the risk assessment of different projects, it adds to the required return on capital for investment decisions, and it pushes investment decisions out in time,” Fløtre said. “So, we do see that this will have a negative effect, not only in the U.S., but also on the global markets for offshore wind and also a lot of other sectors.”

Participation in offshore wind lease sales during the Biden administration, including the record-breaking $4 billion New York Bight lease sale in 2022, has diminished. The U.S. will fall further and further behind in developing offshore wind, said Jim Bennett, retired program manager for the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s Office of Renewable Energy Programs. The U.S. has suffered because of the 180-degree turns taken since activities with the offshore wind program began in 2013, he added.

The ongoing political and regulatory uncertainty led RWE to halt offshore wind activities in the U.S. and set new criteria for investment in this country. Equinor, which is developing the Empire Wind project offshore New York, is considering legal action after the Trump administration on April 16 ordered the company to stop construction.

“The most recent changes certainly directly had its effects. But there was also a lot of subsidies and a lot of tax incentives in the previous administration that may have affected market rates and moved things in maybe a negative way with regards to the economic viability of offshore wind projects,” Bennett said. “So, it’s not a question of laying blame. It’s a question of identifying appropriate paths to move forward. If you want to pursue energy dominance, that’s going to include offshore wind.”

Joshua Kaplowitz, senior counsel for Troutman Pepper Locke LLP, shared similar thoughts. He called the halt of future offshore wind leasing in the U.S., for the time being, unfortunate. Trump’s moves against wind were similar to those carried out by the Biden administration against offshore oil and gas leasing as well as LNG export facilities, he said.

“We need to figure out a way to stop the cycle,” Kaplowitz said. He later added, “We need more energy, and we have to take all legal steps to increase energy supply and in so doing, create manufacturing jobs to help our maritime sector. These are all things that offshore wind can do.”

Equipment providers are not immune to the chaos.

“When timing slips it really does ripple through the entire project,” said Hilary Flynn, head of offshore sales for turbine supplier Siemens Gamesa. Companies may incur costs and reschedule, impacting logistics.

“Even though we’re not driving the market as an equipment supplier, we’re supporting our customers and we’re working with our customers,” Flynn said. “But at the end of the day, when they’re challenged with slower permitting or changing policy, it absolutely affects how we operate as well and how we can react.”

Pushing forward

Despite the headwinds, some projects and countries are still pushing forward. China accounts for 65% of new capacity. Growth in the long-term play is also expected from Europe and Asia, outside of China, toward 2030 and the U.S. and North America from 2030 to 2035.

Dominion Energy’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind is more than halfway finished with completion expected by year-end 2026. The last of three substations are set to be installed in the fall, and Siemens Gamesa is making progress on the project’s 176 wind turbines.

Flynn said Siemens Gamesa has 28 GW of turbines installed offshore globally and about 16 GW of projects under service, which translates to about 2,500 turbines.

Scotland is also advancing projects. “We’ve got a pipeline of 45 gigawatts in development,” said Reuben Aitken, managing director of Scottish Enterprise, the national economic development agency for Scotland. It plans to use that power domestically and abroad as well as for hydrogen and to support offshore oil rigs in the North Sea. The country is targeting 11 GW by 2030.

“There is a commitment from the developers of these projects to have at least 28 billion pounds worth, so over US$30 billion of spend in Scotland from this sweep of projects,” Aitken said. “We’re looking to partner with companies that want to come and build their supply chain in Scotland to make this a reality.”

He also mentioned the country’s supportive government framework, pointing out Scotland’s industrial strategy anchoring its economic performance and growth into the development and deployment of offshore wind.

Within the five years, about 9 GW will be built out, he added.

To achieve Scotland’s offshore wind capacity target by 2030, the sector will need an estimated 1,300 floating foundations, 500 fixed foundations, 5,400 blades, 1,800 nacelles, more than 3,000 km of array cables and more than 6,000 km of export cables, Aitken said. “We think that’s nearly 10 million tons of steel that we’re going to need. So, the supply chain opportunity and the demand are really there. And we are seeing companies and investors beginning to vote with their feet and join us on this journey.”

Panelists agreed that all forms of energy will be needed to meet growing energy demand.

Countries in Europe that have deployed lots of wind onshore will have to go offshore for more energy due to space constraints, Fløtre said. The story is similar for the U.S. East Coast, where topography and population density make offshore wind a good option for the power mix. “Power markets are very regional, very local and need to be tailored to different areas,” he said. “In some areas, offshore wind definitely makes sense in the power mix.”

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