Coal-fired plants will account for about 85% of total U.S. power capacity scheduled for retirement this year with natural gas and renewables taking a greater share of the supply, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Jan. 11.

U.S. power plant operators were scheduled to retire about 12.6 gigawatt (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity in 2022 out of the total 14.9 GW capacity set to be retired.

The largest coal power plant scheduled to go out of service in 2022 is the 1,305-megawatt (MW) William H. Zimmer plant in Ohio, the EIA said.

In 2022, 1.2 GW of U.S. natural gas-fired capacity is due for retirement, while at 0.8 GW, nuclear capacity retirements represent 5% of expected shutdowns this year, the EIA said.

The retiring natural gas capacity is made up of older steam and combustion turbine units. The largest U.S. natural gas plant due to close in 2022 is the Meramec power plant in Missouri, the agency said.

U.S. power usage will rise about 1% in 2022 as the economy recovers for a second year from 2020's demand slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the EIA also said on Jan. 11.

In its short-term energy outlook (STEO), the EIA projected power demand will climb from 3,932 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2021 to 3,956 billion kWh in 2022 and 4,010 billion kWh in 2023.

That compares with a coronavirus-depressed eight-year low of 3,856 billion kWh in 2020 and an all-time high of 4,003 billion kWh in 2018.

The EIA projected 2022 power sales would ease to 1,451 billion kWh for residential consumers, but rise to 1,345 billion kWh for commercial customers as more people return to offices and 1,014 billion kWh for industrials.

That compares with current all-time highs of 1,483 billion kWh in 2021 for residential consumers, 1,382 billion kWh in 2018 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrials.

The EIA said natural gas’ share of power generation will slide from 37% in 2021 to 35% in 2022 and 34% in 2023 as gas prices rise. Coal’s share will slide from 23% in 2021 to 22% in 2022 and 2023.

The percentage of nuclear generation will hold at 20% in 2022 and 2023, the same as 2021. Renewables will rise from 20% in 2021 to 23% in 2022 and 24% in 2023.

The EIA projected 2022 natural gas sales would rise to 13.34 Bcf/d for residential consumers, 9.25 Bcf/d for commercial customers and 23.22 Bcf/d for industrials, but fall to 28.84 Bcf/d for power generation.

That compares with all-time highs of 14.32 Bcf/d in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.63 Bcf/d in 2019 for commercial customers, 23.80 Bcf/d in 1973 for industrials and 31.75 Bcf/d in 2020 for power generation.