Belcher: Are There More Iberian Blackouts in Our Future?

On April 28, a blackout occurred on the Iberian Peninsula, leaving millions of customers in Spain, Portugal and parts of France without power, transportation, communications and other essential services for up to 23 hours. This type of event, of course, has huge impacts on a region’s economy, the livelihoods of its people and their overall faith in their government and economic institutions.

The blackout began with a power failure at two solar energy facilities in Spain, which resulted in broader power outages across the peninsula, including the shutdown of thermal energy-powered facilities to avoid equipment damage. The French grid operator disconnected from the Spanish grid to avoid spreading the outages. The result was widespread system failure.

Almost immediately, the event became politicized, with opponents of renewable energy blaming the blackout on their intermittency. Spain and Portugal, countries with abundant wind and sunshine, have made strong commitments to use renewable energy to meet climate change decarbonization targets.

In 2024, renewable energy made up 56% of Spain electricity generation, with wind energy accounting for 23.5% of its power. Portugal is committed to having 93% of its electricity come from renewables by 2030.

Europe’s move toward renewable energy dominance is not without its critics, who argue that the intermittency and lack of dispatchability will make its grid vulnerable. The power grids in Europe and North America are similar. Both are quite Balkanized and are dependent on distant regions to supply thermal-based electricity when weather induces supply disruptions.

Europe is also importing more U.S. LNG to meet demand following the loss of Russian natural gas, and more countries in Europe are looking to nuclear energy to meet future demand. An investigation into the blackout will be ongoing, probably for months, to determine the causes and will look into issues such as system inertia, undamped power oscillations, frequency control and induced atmospheric vibration. These are all issues we are facing in the U.S., as well.

The blackout serves as a wake-up call, a harbinger on both sides of the Atlantic. Power grids have become more complex, with so many different types of electricity generation and now an increase in demand from AI and new data centers.

U.S. data center demand was 19 gigawatts (GW) in 2019. It grew to 25 GW in 2024 and is expected to reach 80 GW by 2030. Data centers account for about 4% of the total U.S. electricity demand, with that share expected to rise to 9% by 2030.

Lingering questions

Energy is the largest operating expense for data centers, making up 40% and 80% of total annual expenditures. Data center companies strive to maximize energy efficiency to keep costs low for customers and to support their own operations, but they also need reliable energy—they cannot afford to lose power.

The U.S. is seeking ways to address this surge in demand and answer many of the lingering questions that need to be addressed regarding future electricity generation, transmission and distribution.

Those questions include:

• Do we want more localized power using microgrids?
• Do we want to continue to use existing aging and overloaded transmission lines to deliver power where it’s needed? 
• Do we want to continue to fund the transmission infrastructure though ratepayers who fund highly regulated electric utilities?
• Do we find a way to finance the grid through deregulated markets or do we let a quasi-governmental entity run the grid?
• How do we pay for additional transmission, smart grids and interconnection for new sources of power we are going to need to meet demand projections?
• How do we add electrons to the market to meet growing demand for data centers and other growing consuming segments?
• How do we strike the right balance between reliable and dispatchable energy sources and those that help us meet climate goals?

In the U.S., it is clear that, politically, we are now more focused on reliability and sustainability. The Trump administration is laser focused on energy dominance, taking full advantage of America’s energy production and distribution potential and using it to our greatest geopolitical advantage.

A major part of energy dominance is ensuring that the U.S. energy delivery system is steadfast and effective. To do that, we need to invest money in new generation, transmission and distribution.

We also need to ensure that we have the fuel available to affordably and efficiently deliver that electricity. Natural gas is going to play a critical role in meeting the demand for electricity in the U.S. and globally. The challenge is going to be maintaining and increasing production and delivery of gas for manufacturing, power generation and LNG exports for our allies in Europe and Asia.

Achieving energy dominance

While the blackout in Iberia is a cause for concern, I am optimistic that, in the U.S., we are headed in the right direction. To address U.S. energy goals, President Donald Trump has established the U.S. Energy Dominance Council, chaired by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and vice-chaired by the Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and comprised of members of the president’s cabinet and key government agencies.

The goal of the council is to develop strategies across federal agencies to “achieve energy dominance by improving the processes for permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation across all forms of American energy.” A major part of that mission is to address the issues facing the current electricity system, meet future demand growth and avoid blackouts and other impacts to the electrical grid.

Through the council, the U.S. government has a unique opportunity to tackle multiple issues regarding power generation and the grid. It seeks to cut red tape, enhance private sector investments across all sectors of the energy-producing economy and focus on innovation and removing unnecessary regulation.

This coordinated effort is a great way for the U.S. government to work with the private sector to address these issues. It’s a coordinated effort with the upstream sector to reduce regulatory burdens and increase domestic production, create an excellent opportunity for natural gas to play a resurgent role in boosting the U.S. economy and meet our energy needs.