Though global oil demand is forecast to rise alongside a potentially looming oil supply deficit, analysts don’t expect U.S. shale producers—at least not the public ones—to help fill the gap by producing much more this summer if disaccord persists during OPEC+ negotiations.

That could, however, change next year as U.S. production rises.

For now, public producers have little incentive to significantly pump more, given most of their 2021 crude output is hedged way below today’s oil prices of more than $74/bbl, Rystad Energy analysts said. Plus, many are sticking to promises to exercise capital discipline and boost shareholder payouts.

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