In 2025, U.S. production in crude, natural gas and NGLs are expected to rise, driven by increased demand for LNG exports and the power needs of an expanding data center base. (Source: Shutterstock)
The Bakken Shale, as an oil-focused play, presents a lot of the same problems for operators as the Permian Basin.
The Permian, however, gives producers a relatively easy, intrastate path to commercial markets along the Gulf Coast. The Bakken, located in the north-central region of the North American continent, does not offer an easy path to market.
In 2025, some midstream companies may be able to find a more economical way to crack the Bakken’s logistical challenges, said experts at East Daley Analytics in an annual report showcasing potential trends within the energy marketplace.
Midstream players have to understand that the three petrochemical products from shale basins—crude, natural gas and NGLs—are intertwined in what East Daley called “commodity ties” in its opening webinar for its annual “Dirty Little Secrets” report on Nov. 6.
“If you just care about natural gas, and it’s all you’re watching, you have a high likelihood of getting run over,” said Jim Simpson, East Daley CEO. “If you just care about NGLs and that’s all you’re watching, again, high likelihood you’re going to get run over.”
The same goes for people who focus only on crude, Simpson said. East Daley therefore focused on the state of the Bakken, as a prime example of an intertwined energy market.
In 2025, U.S. production in crude, natural gas and NGLs are expected to rise, driven by increased demand for LNG exports and the power needs of an expanding data center base. Gas-driven basins, such as the Haynesville, Piceance and Barnett are expected to ramp up production.
Oil-driven basins, such as the Bakken, will increase production as well with an average growth of about 3.6% across commodities from 2024, East Daley forecasts. With the general overview, the firm also focused on how midstream companies in the area could move NGLs economically.
Over the summer, ONEOK announced plans to rebuild the Medford fractionator in Conway, Kansas. The move will allow the midstream firm to utilize its underused Sterling pipeline to move purity product to Mont Belvieu and free up space on its Arbuckle system for NGLs out of the Permian, Midcontinent and Bakken.
Meanwhile, a consortium of infrastructure companies, including Kinder Morgan and Energy Transfer, may consider the option of developing a network through connecting several lines already in the area, allowing the greater NGL volumes to flow towards processing in Conway and Mont Belvieu.
Over the next year, operators will value alternatives on how and when to bring products to the market.
“Keeping the possession of those molecules and optionality are big themes for 2025 clients,” Simpson said.
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