Some $16 trillion needs to be invested in energy infrastructure from 2001-30 to replace obsolete facilities and expand supply capacity, according to a new study by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA leaders say the study is the first of its kind for the industry. Of the $16 trillion needed, 60% will be for electricity infrastructure, 2% for coal, and 19% each for the oil and gas sectors. That translates into more than $3 trillion-or $100 billion a year-each for oil and gas, most of that earmarked for the upstream. It was difficult for the IEA to find data on global energy investments, says Fatih Birol, chief economist. But the group estimates that the forecasted upstream expenditures represent at least a 25% boost over current spending. Overall, oil demand is expected to increase by 45 million barrels a day to 120 million in 2030. To satisfy this demand, some 72% of the projected oil investments, or $2.2 trillion, will go to exploration and development of conventional oil. Seven percent will go to nonconventional oil investments (including gas-to-liquids), 8% will go to tankers and pipelines, and 13% will go to refining. What surprised the IEA was the amount of money required simply to replace existing production. About a quarter of the upstream oil investment will be needed to meet rising demand, and the rest will be needed to counter the natural decline in production. "Estimated decline rates vary among regions, ranging from 4% per year in some Middle East countries to 11% in the North Sea in Europe," the IEA reports. For gas, some 300 billion cubic meters a year of new gas-production capacity is needed worldwide, more than two-thirds of which will be needed to compensate for declining production. Exploration and development spending will absorb more than half of the more than $3 trillion in total gas investment, or about $1.7 trillion. Transmission and storage will require $673 billion; liquefied natural gas, $252 billion; and distribution, $489 billion. This necessary financing cannot be taken for granted, IEA leaders add. "Financing the energy industry in the next three decades will be more difficult than in the past three decades," says Claude Mandil, IEA executive director. Compared with years past, more money will be needed in developing countries, and more will be needed from private and foreign sources. "There has already been a marked trend away from financing energy investments from public budgets," according to the study. "Many governments have privatized energy businesses, both to raise money and to limit the future call on the public budget, and have opened up their markets to foreign involvement." But the risks for foreign investors are large, and governments would be wise to create investment frameworks that will enable them to attract necessary capital. "[The study] is a wake-up call for the governments," Mandil says. Though the IEA is calling for a great deal of investment, more would need to be done to ensure that every global citizen has access to energy. The forecasted investments would still leave 1.4 billion people without access to electricity in 2030. Boosting investments by 7% would bring a minimal level of supply to these people, but that would mean raising another $665 billion in the poorest regions, which already struggle to raise capital.