A new service by Hart Energy Research Group providing a Short-Term WTI & Brent Price Forecast and a Short-Term Petroleum Product Price Forecast. This new service includes:

• A methodological paper explaining Hart Energy’s pricing model and the philosophy behind it
• For the Oil Price Forecast: A quarterly WTI & Brent crude oil price outlook to 2013 (3-year forecast)
• For the Refined Product Forecast: Refined product prices and margins generated from PIMS & Hart models
• A report highlighting key financial market and fundamental oil market drivers affecting crude oil and product prices
• Differentials analysis - octane, sulfur (diesel and fuel oil), gasoline to diesel, light vs. heavy crudes
• Flash Reports on important meetings (OPEC, IEA,...etc...) susceptible to have an impact on price

The quarterly reports and pricing analysis are delivered in both Digital and Excel format. The pricing service has started with USGC and will eventually expand out to Rotterdam and Singapore. 

Download a copy of "Trouble at the Top of the Pyramid"

The $100 Question: Where are Oil Prices headed - February 2011 - Oil and Gas Investor Magazine

WTI Brent: A Changed Landscape - April 2011 - Oil and Gas Investor Magazine

Financial trends, financial markets and geopolitical risks have been built into our oil price model to complement traditional demand and supply analysis

Quantitative Parameters 

• Purchasing Power Stability – Barrel of WTI crude / Oz of gold
• Absolute and Relative Demand Growth Between OECD and non-OECD – Economic and oil demand growth patterns will be heavily weighted toward the non-OECD, especially China
• Ability of Short Term Supply to Meet Demand Shocks – OPEC production quotas and maintained levels of spare production capacity
• Overall Financial Markets Sentiments – S&P500 performance and the acceptance of commodities as a new asset class
• Unit of Exchange – USD/EUR foreign exchange rate
• Short Term Demand and Supply Balance – OECD days forward cover and expectations for non-OPEC supply growth 

Qualitative Parameters

• Geopolitical Risk
• Value Judgment

Main Contributor

Conrad Barnes Manager, Pricing cbarnes@hartenergy.com Prior to joining Hart Energy, Conrad was an associate at IHS CERA where he led the Capital Cost Analysis Forum's modeling and research on the global steel and the offshore rig markets. He also spent three years in their Global Oil group, responsible for fundamental analysis of crude oil and refined products and was a regular contributor to their World Oil Watch and monthly Market Briefings. Conrad was a strategy analyst at BJ Energy, where he was responsible for the oversight and management of royalty and operating assets. Conrad holds a BA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute's (RPI) Lally School of Management and Technology.